Escalating Trade War: US imposes 50% tariffs on Brazil and China breaks global export records
China’s trade balance once again defied market expectations, posting a surplus above forecasts last month, driven largely by record-breaking steel exports, even amid rising global protectionism.
According to data from Trading Economics, the trade surplus of the world’s second-largest economy exceeded analyst expectations, reflecting the resilience of China’s export sector despite external challenges. A significant portion of the positive result came from the steel industry, which continues to expand globally.
A Bloomberg report highlighted that China’s steel exports surpassed 10 million tons in June, setting a new historical record. This achievement comes at a time when several major economies — including the United States and the European Union — are actively imposing tariffs and trade barriers to protect local industries.
Still, the numbers confirm China’s growing global footprint, as it capitalizes on competitive pricing and renewed demand in emerging markets.
Analysts argue that China's performance calls for new diplomatic and trade strategies from its key trading partners and reignites debates over dumping practices and the balance in global commerce.
U.S. Trade Surplus with Brazil Reaches USD $1.7 Billion as 50% Tariffs Alarm Brazilian Exporters
The latest edition of the Brazil-U.S. Trade Monitor, published by Amcham Brasil, revealed that the U.S. trade surplus with Brazil reached USD $1.7 billion in the first half of 2025 — a 500% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
While bilateral trade grew by 7.7%, totaling USD $41.7 billion (the second-highest level in historical series), the report warns of the growing impact of U.S. tariffs on strategic Brazilian exports.
50% Tariffs Set to Take Effect in August
The publication comes amid tension, as the U.S. government has confirmed a 50% tariff increase on Brazilian products, effective August 1st. The measure has already triggered concerns among Brazilian exporters and supply chains.
“The first-half results underscore the significance of bilateral trade for both countries and the urgent need for a balanced, pragmatic solution to avoid an escalating trade war,” stated Abrão Neto, President of Amcham Brasil.
U.S. Expands Role in Brazilian Imports
January–June 2025 Data:
- Brazilian exports to the U.S.: USD $20 billion (+4.4%)
- Highlights: Beef (+142%), Fruit Juices (+74%), Green Coffee (+39%), Aircraft (+12.1%)
- Brazilian imports from the U.S.: USD $21.7 billion (+11.5%), leading to a record U.S. trade surplus of USD $1.7 billion
Strategic Sectors Already Hit by Tariffs
Among Brazil’s top 10 exports with declining performance in the U.S., eight are subject to additional tariffs, including:
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Pulp: -14.9%
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Machinery and Equipment: -23.6%
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Wood Products: -14.0%
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Engines: -7.6%
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Auto Parts: -5.6%
Amcham Urges Immediate Diplomatic Action
Faced with the growing risk of trade disruption, Amcham Brasil – the American Chamber of Commerce outside the U.S. – calls for immediate bilateral diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation.
“We are facing a critical situation that could jeopardize a large share of Brazil’s industrial exports to the U.S.,” said Abrão Neto. “Constructive dialogue must prevail, as has traditionally characterized Brazil-U.S. relations.”
Sources: Trading Economics, Bloomberg, Amcham Brasil
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KELLY COUTO
